Thu, 11 September 2014

Taleb, one of the fathers of the new statistics

Excellent talk from Nassim Nicolas Taleb where he explains quickly his anti-fragility theory. He explained this in great detail in his excellent, provocative , sometimes juicy, book new book “Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder.” . Taleb’s point is that when uncertainty increases, culminating in extreme events, ‘fragile’ things die or fail, while ‘antifragile’ ones survive and thrive, like option traders who own out-the-money contracts. He argues that by optimising systems to survive under normal conditions, we’re setting ourselves up for catastrophic failures like the Fukushima nuclear reactor. Meanwhile he also repeatedly attacks theorists and academics as the sorts of people who would presume to “lecture birds on how to fly.”